Knight Frank Commentary | Monthly Developer Sales - September 2026

There were 296 developer sales (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) in September 2026, almost double the 153 units recorded in August, and 16.1% more than the 255 units recorded in September a year ago. In the first nine months of 2026, there is an estimated total of 5,334 developer sales after adding in the 4,154 new sales in H1 2026 (based on the real estate statistics released by URA).

In  the same nine-month period in 2025, 7,857 primary sales (based on the real estate statistics released by URA) were already recorded, about 47.3% more than the estimate in 2026. The two new projects launched in September 2026 were Amberwood at Holland and Luxus Hills.

Developers now have just one window for launch in the remainder of the year, from October until the third week of November when the year-end school holidays begin. Given the reduced launches in Q3 2026 and homebuyer sentiment turning more selective, new home sales are now more likely to end the year below the original projection of 8,000 to 10,000 units, possibly ranging between 6,500 to 7,500 units instead.

Singapore's private residential market has been resilient through 2026, especially in the first half of the year, supported by healthy household balance sheets, accumulated wealth and confidence in the city-state's long-term prospects. However, the outlook has turned hazy in Q3.

The US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate hike has introduced concerns that borrowing costs will increase in the months and year ahead. And even though unemployment levels remain low, retrenchments increased from 3,830 in Q1 2026 to 4,620 in Q2 2026, with layoffs concentrated in sectors such as manufacturing, information and communications, and financial services.

Although the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) continues to power Singapore’s manufacturing sector and create substantial uplift in the economy, this is also paradoxically causing uncertainty to creep into the labour market due to the proliferation of AI-related disruptors across a widening range of occupations. These risks could temper purchasing sentiment as prospective buyers become more cautious about taking on long-term mortgage commitments.

In conjunction with affordability pressures, land rates at government land sales (GLS) tenders have been increasing as top bids become more bullish. The average land rate for non-landed residential GLS sites increased about 21% during the 12-month period from Q4 2025 to Q3 2026 when compared against the duration between Q4 2024 and Q3 2025. While this reflects continued confidence in Singapore's long-term housing demand vis-à-vis the scarcity of quality development opportunities, higher land costs translate into higher future launch prices.

Against this backdrop, potential buyers face the dual challenge of rising housing prices amid a more uncertain financing environment. The prospect of higher interest rates and launch prices in the future could encourage some buyers to advance their purchasing decisions to the next few months. As land costs rise, homebuyers may increasingly view projects launched in 2026 as offering relative value compared to future launches that will be developed on more costly land parcels. This demand would not be driven by fears of missing out on further price increases, but by a desire to secure housing before affordability deteriorates.

The residential market's underlying fundamentals remain intact, but as interest rate risks, AI-related employment uncertainty and affordability pressures converge, outlook visibility is becoming obscured. The market remains resilient, though the horizon ahead appears decidedly hazier than it did a year ago.