Knight Frank Commentary | URA Q2 2026 Flash Estimates

Knight Frank Commentary | URA Q2 2026 Flash Estimates

Based on flash estimates released today, the URA All Residential Price Index increased by a slight 0.5% q-o-q in Q2 2026, and an increase of 1.4% in the first six months of 2026. The flash estimate for Q2 2026 should land in similar territory when the finalised numbers are announced in the fourth week of July, as there were no new launches in the month of June that have yet to be factored into the indices.

The three new launches comprising Hudson Place Residences in Media Circle, Tengah Garden Residences in Tengah and Vela Bay at Bayshore in April and May, were priced sensitively with buyers in mind and did not breach existing levels already established in the Rest of the Central Region (RCR) and the Outside Central Region (OCR), as both indices declined 1.4% q-o-q and 0.2% respectively. As a result, prices in the non-landed private home market were stable in Q2 2026 registering a slight easing of 0.1% q-o-q. This is characteristic of the transition from the rapid post-pandemic expansion towards a more sustainable and balanced phase of growth from 2024.

While this stability is positive, an eye should be kept on private residential development sites awarded by the government as a precursor to probable price increases in the remainder of 2026 and early 2027. It was observed that the average land rate for sites that were awarded in the first half of 2025 was slightly lower than the average for sites sold in the second half of 2025. This might lead to some moderate price growth in the second half of 2026 when these projects are launched. Even so, price growth in the private residential market can be expected to be in the range of 3% to 5% for the whole year, as originally projected by Knight Frank six months ago. Buyers will continue to gravitate towards well-located projects that offer connectivity and future growth potential in various neighbourhoods, as benign mortgage rates (more favourable than a year ago) support sustained demand from HDB upgraders and genuine owner-occupiers.

In the prime Core Central Region (CCR), prices increased 2.0% q-o-q. The government has been increasing the number of citizenships and permanent residencies granted in the recent years to support population replacement rates due to Singapore’s falling birthrates. As such demand for higher-end non-landed homes was also contributed by the wealth from this buyer pool, as some decided to upgrade from being renters to homeowners.

In the landed home market, prices increased 2.6% q-o-q in Q2 2026 after a slight decline of 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2026. Historically, this is now the highest the landed price index has ever been. Activity is expected to remain fairly resilient with most deals closing within the S$5 million and S$10 million price bands as long as priced sensibly with the home’s corresponding locational and physical attributes. Landed home values are expected to grow overall by about 3% to 5% for the year, in tandem with the overall private market.