Knight Frank Commentary | URA Q1 2026 Flash Estimates

Knight Frank Commentary | URA Q1 2026 Flash Estimates

Based on flash estimates released today, the URA All Residential Price Index increased by a slight 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2026. The estimate for Q1 2026 could be slightly higher when the finalised numbers are announced in the fourth week of April, as the brisk activity in Tampines in the second half of March 2026 with the 92.5% project sales at both Pinery Residences and Rivelle Tampines executive condominium (EC) have yet to be factored into the indices.

The non-landed index for the Outside Central Region (OCR) which increased by 1.3% based on the flash estimates announced today might also register a higher gain when all transactions in the full month of March are accounted for.

Although the increase in the first three months of 2026 was marginal partly due to the lack of launches in February as a result of the Lunar New Year festive period, prices of newly launched product continue to lead the secondary sales transactions islandwide and will continue to be the main driver of price increases for the rest of the year. Based on a quick scan of non-landed caveats as of 1 April 2026, the median price for new sales is S$2,942 psf, 66.6% higher than that of resale transactions at S$1,766 psf in Q1 2026.

In the prime Core Central Region (CCR), the 0.4% increase q-o-q in Q1 2026 was mainly contributed by the launch of the leasehold River Modern, where 410 or 90% of the project total of 455 units were reportedly sold during the first weekend at an average price of S$3,266 psf, as well as the launch of the freehold Newport Residences in January at a reported average price of S$3,370 psf. Homebuyer momentum in the CCR, which began building in the second half of 2025 is expected to be steady through 2026, with the prime segment sustaining activity after a prolonged lull before 2025, so long as prices remain within reasonable expectations. Well-located projects have drawn solid interest, and more local buyers are making home purchases in the prime districts, supported by accumulated wealth and the view that such properties remain sound long-term investments despite the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) on the ownership of multiple homes. Demand could also be supported by demographic trends, with the number of new citizens and permanent residents rising to the highest in more than a decade in 2025, reinforcing underlying housing needs.

In the landed market, even though prices declined by 1.8% q-o-q, the current lowered interest rate environment is likely to continuing motivating buyers into a purchase decision in the coming months before interest rates could possibly start to creep up.

The months ahead are fraught with much uncertainty due to the conflict in the Middle-East. The spillover effects are likely to be wide ranging with the disruptions in energy sources affecting costs. Operating margins of many businesses in an array of industries that would inevitably be impacted and this could lead to layoffs in the labour market. While domestic demand for private residential homes continues to be strong, homebuyers are keeping an eye on how events in the Middle-East will affect job security and their ability to purchase new homes. Other potential buyers are also wary that interest rate might rise, and between weighing the risks of destabilising employment and the likelihood of increased interest rates would require a decision sooner rather than later.

Nevertheless, global wealth flows could also influence the high-end segment in the months ahead. With the uncertainty in the Middle East, capital is likely to remain mobile, and Singapore is well placed to benefit as a stable wealth and financial hub. Some investors may recalibrate exposure away from conflict affected markets to Southeast Asia, which could lend support for prime residential assets. However, such inflows are expected to be gradual rather than immediate. Singapore’s stability should underpin the projected private residential price growth of 3% to 5% for the whole year, as long as financial markets and the broader economy hold steady amid the global tensions.