Knight Frank Commentary | URA Q3 2026 Flash Estimates

 Based on flash estimates released today, the URA All Residential Price Index increased by 1.4% q-o-q in Q3 2026, cumulating in a total increase of 2.8% in the nine months of 2026 to-date. The new launches in the Core Central Region (CCR) of Dunearn House in July and Amberwood At Holland in September did not change price levels, as the CCR non-landed price index remained relatively stable with a slight decline of 0.1% q-o-q. However, there was a moderate increase of 2.2% q-o-q in the Outside Central Region (OCR) with the launch of Lentor Gardens Residences, and the continued sale of existing units at other already launched projects. Activity was generally muted in Q3 2026 due to the Chinese Seventh Month.
 
The main contributor to the uplift in overall private home prices in Q3 2026 was due to the landed housing market, where the landed price index grew 2.8% q-o-q. Prices of landed homes have increased by 4.9% in 2026 thus far, and with each passing quarter appears to be setting a new historic high. Even though transaction volume remains stable between 500 and 600 landed units each quarter in 2026, prices continue to climb as aspirational homebuyers look to upgrade from the non-landed market.

The removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners to purchase a non-subsidised HDB resale flat without an HDB housing loan, could increase transaction activity in the months ahead as retirees living in landed homes are incentivised to right-size and downgrade to HDB homes. This would include seniors who wish to live in a smaller more manageable property, and whose children have left home to set up their own families but nonetheless wish to relocate closer to their children.
 
Price growth in the private residential market can be expected to settle somewhere in the middle of the forecast range of 3% to 5% for the whole year, as originally projected by Knight Frank. Buyers will continue to gravitate towards well-located projects that offer connectivity and future growth potential in various neighbourhoods. With increasing concerns over higher borrowing costs in the months ahead after the US Federal Reserve hiked rates, homebuyers might also be spurred into buying a home sooner-rather than later to lock in a favourable mortgage.

However, an eye needs to be kept on the labour market. While unemployment levels remain low, retrenchments have increased from 3,830 in Q1 2026 to 4,620 in Q2 2026, with layoffs concentrated in sectors such as manufacturing, information and communications, and financial services. There is a sense of uncertainty creeping into the labour market with the proliferation of AI-related disruptors in several industries. Should job security be undermined, prospective homebuyers might hold off on making a purchase, and adopt a more cautious wait-and-see posture.