URA Real Estate Stats - Q4 2025

Residential

The number of new sales surged by a substantial 67.2% from 6,469 units in 2024, crossing 10,000 sales to record 10,815 in 2025, in a year fraught with global economic uncertainty and destabilising political tensions. Even though the number of new sales in Q4 2025 fell 10.6% q-o-q, year 2025 archived a bumper year not seen since 2021, as new launch conversions into transactions due to easing interest rates brought homebuyers out from the sidelines. Developers also launched a total of 11,482 new homes in 2025, the most bountiful volume since more than ten years ago in 2013. All sales (including subsale and resale) increased 20.7% from 21,950 units in 2024 to 26,492 units in 2025. The increase in volume contrasted against price growth, where the URA All Residential Price Index increased by a slight 0.6% q-o-q and 3.3% for the whole of 2025, at the low end of Knight Frank’s projection of 3% to 5% called a year ago.  

Unlike the first nine months of the year, non-landed home prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) recorded the highest quarterly decline of 3.5% in Q4 2025 after having increased 5.6% from January to September. For the entire year, prices in the CCR increased by a moderate 1.9%. A scan of caveats in 2025 showed that new sales of high-rise luxury homes in the prime areas of over 2,500 sf registered a median price of S$4,692 psf, while a median price of S$2,173 psf was recorded for resale properties with the same parameters. With the median unit prices of new product commanding a premium that is more than double that of resale transactions, buyers looking for completed homes in the prime areas could find more affordable opportunities with good value. Some of the older reputable projects in the Core Central Region, where larger family-sized units are more proliferate, can have price tags at a substantial discount to new launches, and possibly be just as affordable homes in non-prime areas.

In the year ahead, declining interest rates, Singapore’s stability and predictability amid the global economic uncertainty and political tension, as well as continued demand for family-sized units in prime locations by both Singaporean and foreign high-net-worth individuals and families with residency are expected to support the luxury non-landed home market in the CCR. Combined with the 60% Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) continuing to inhibit foreign demand, and with less new units expected to be launched in the CCR compared to 2025, the pace of price increase will likely range between 1% to 3%.

The landed market contributed most to price increase in the private home market in 2025. Landed home prices increased 3.4% q-o-q and by a significant 7.6% y-o-y in Q4 2025, after an indifferent increase of 0.9% y-o-y in 2024. Although sellers continued to be sticky with asking prices, the lowered interest rate environment improved affordability among buyers and motivated both buyers and sellers to a transaction decision that resulted in a pickup in sales activity throughout most of the year. Despite the return of interest in landed homes in 2025, this segment is expected to remain measured and selective in 2026 with most of the activity occurring between the S$5 million and S$10 million price bands. Buyers remain reluctant to undertake costly teardown-and-rebuild projects, with demand gravitating towards smaller quantum ready-to-move-in landed homes. Given this environment, landed home values are still anticipated to edge up by a comparatively more modest 3% to 5% in the year ahead.

The URA rental index for private homes shrank by 0.5% q-o-q but grew at a restrained 1.9% y-o-y in 2025, in line with Knight Frank’s forecasts for 2025. In the leasing market, landlords are growing wary and defensive and job security is becoming less uncertain for employees in industries that are increasingly affected by the rapid changes in the world. Higher cost-of-living concerns are also threatening to reduce Singapore’s appeal to foreign professionals. As such, rental growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate at around 1% to 3%.

In 2026, demand for private homes is expected to remain as resilient as 2025, with homebuyer demand generally concentrating on new launches. As interest rates likely trend lower, financing conditions should improve and underpin buying activity. Nonetheless, global macroeconomic uncertainties persist, and the global and regional political climate can change in an instant. As such, overall private residential transactions are projected at around 20,000 to 23,000 units, with new home sales estimated at 8,000 to 10,000 units. Affordability will remain a key consideration after several years of price growth, prompting buyers to focus more closely on value. Younger buyers continue to gravitate towards new launches, driven by limited resale availability and a preference for modern layouts and contemporary design. Developments offering a broader range of shared amenities are increasingly favoured, as buyers are more willing to trade off private space in the form of larger unit sizes for enhanced communal facilities. In this environment, developers are likely to emphasise design efficiency and amenity provision to stay competitive. Private residential prices are projected to grow at a measured pace of about 3% to 5% in 2026.

Office

The office rental index grew by a marginal 0.4% q-o-q in the last quarter of 2025, reversing from the slight 0.1% q-o-q decline in Q3 2025. On a yearly basis, office rents remained broadly flat having expanded 0.3% y-o-y in 2025. Occupiers remain cautious when considering expansion as most continue to opt to renew their current leases amid the ongoing economic uncertainty, and often due to a lack of suitable relocation options.

Occupancy levels island wide in Q4 2025 increased to 88.9%, up 0.1 percentage points (pp) from the 88.8% recorded in Q3 2025. While occupancy levels, especially in quality buildings, remained tight, rents have not increased in a substantial manner as landlords focused on keeping buildings filled amid the ongoing trade tensions and escalating global uncertainty. This cautious stance by both landlords and tenants has contributed to the stabilisation in office rents observed throughout 2025.

Landlords currently hold a slight advantage in the office market, as most occupiers remained conservative. Many tenants continue to favour lease renewals to avoid fresh capital expenditure, electing to maintain operational stability. Even larger occupiers from the technology and professional services sectors that had previously explored relocation increasingly chose to stay put, given the limited availability of suitable quality alternatives and tight supply. This dynamic allowed landlords to secure marginally positive rental reversions while boosting already healthy occupancy levels. At the same time, proactive landlords offering speculative fitted-out spaces have also been stoking healthy interest, as companies prioritise minimal upfront investments when considering any relocation.

The current market dynamics are likely to be carried into the new year, as many occupiers adopt a wait-and-see approach in the first half of 2026. Businesses are closely watching the volatile drama of global economic and political developments before committing to major decisions. At the same time, a subset of occupiers may use this period to secure space in newer, higher-quality buildings, or at better locations, often in cost-neutral moves by either preserving their current size or right-sizing to better support hybrid work arrangements.

Landlords are expected to remain focused on sustaining occupancy, especially for those that are facing larger or longer-standing vacancies. Landlords of older properties that are under vacancy pressure may selectively offer additional incentives or fitted-out solutions to appeal to prospective tenants, bridging specification gaps. For tenants, value-for-money pockets of opportunities where spaces continue to be competitively priced can still be found.

Overall, the Singapore office market is anticipated to remain stable in 2026, with moderate annual rental growth of around 3% to 5%. With the limited amount of shadow space and restrained new supply, occupancy rates are likely to be strong as regional corporates, and financial firms continue to view Singapore as a reliable, pro-business hub in Southeast Asia, even though sudden global economic upheavals and potential large sublease releases are factors to watch.

Retail

In Q4 2025, rents of retail space grew by a marginal 0.6% q-o-q, similar to the 0.9% growth in Q3 2025. For the full year, retail space rents grew 1.9%, expanding from the 0.5% growth in 2024. While the sector remains on a growth trajectory, high operating costs and intensifying competition in the retail landscape continue to lead to high-profile exits. Retail and F&B operators are turning towards a more conservative approach to expansion, deployment of capital expenditure and store network optimisation. This more careful expansion translated to a slight increase in occupancy level, rising 0.6 perentage points from 93.1% in Q3 2025 to 93.7% in Q4 2025.

Despite the cost challenges, the F&B sector in Singapore continues to be a main supporter of leasing demand, due to the city-state’s solidifying position as both a global wealth hub and a strategic gateway to markets in Southeast Asia. Chinese F&B brands emerged as one of the most influential forces shaping the retail scene. The initial phase of Chinese expansion was marked by the rapid rollout of major mass-market chains. This has eased, transiting towards more measured growth that is driven by quality. Increasingly defined by refinement rather than scale, operators are recalibrating their strategies to suit a more competitive trading environment and discerning consumers.

Such portfolio optimisation is characterised by operators relocating to higher-traffic or more prestigious locations, refurbishing existing outlets and introducing premium or differentiated variations for broader appeal. This deliberate shift from expanding to deepening market share, has operators prioritising brand strength, concept innovation and a sophisticated appreciation of consumer behaviour over sheer outlet count.

Looking ahead, luxury segments such as watches, jewellery and designer labels are expected to remain among the more resilient segments of the retail market, supported by high-net-worth local consumption and recovering tourist spend. Experiential and service-led categories including beauty, wellness, fitness and enrichment are also well-positioned, benefiting from consumers’ increasing willingness to spend per visit, personalised offerings and stronger brand affinity. In contrast, mid-market fashion, large-format department stores and low-margin mass-market retailers are likely to face mounting pressure unless they can articulate clear value propositions through sharper differentiation and effective omnichannel strategies.

F&B operators are expected to continue anchoring new leasing demand and to account for a significant share of new transactions, particularly in both prime and well-performing suburban malls. At the same time, luxury brands and global retailers remain focused on securing premium-format stores along Orchard Road and Marina Bay. Additional demand is anticipated from fitness, health and beauty services, personal care operators and omnichannel showrooms that integrate retail with experiential elements. This diversification supports occupancy levels and contributes to overall mall vibrancy, while landlords continue to expand lifestyle, experiential and pop-up formats to enhance dwell time and sharpen mall positioning.

With limited new retail supply until 2028, occupancy in well-managed malls is expected to remain firm, sustaining competition for quality space and underpinning rental stability. Notwithstanding the challenges in a tough operating environment, Knight Frank projects prime retail rents to grow by 2% to 4% in 2026, supported by stable tourist arrivals, a robust hospitality and MICE pipeline, and Singapore’s strengthening position as a regional hub for entertainment and large-scale events. However, secondary malls with pedestrian traffic are likely to see more modest growth or flat rental performance, reflecting greater sensitivity to cost pressures and consumer trade-down.