URA Private Residential Flash Estimates

URA Private Residential Flash Estimates

The homebuyer activity in October and November 2024 continued into Q1 2025, and resulted in the URA All Residential Price Index increasing 0.6% q-o-q and 3.1% y-o-y, based on the flash estimates announced by URA today. However, this increase in Q1 2025 was much more moderate compared to Q4 2024, as price benchmarks in several locations in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) stabilised in 2024, signalling signs of an equilibrium at the start of the new year.

During the quarter, homebuyers remained active at showflats evidenced by healthy take up at prominent launches in established residential towns where there are ample amenities, or else, in areas with a compelling growth story such as Tengah. Homebuyer demand continues to be supported by strong household balance sheets that remain on a path of steadily improving affluence, a low unemployment rate, and liquid wealth that is passed down from earlier generations of Singaporeans that have benefitted from asset appreciation.

In the Core Central Region (CCR), prices grew 0.6% q-o-q and 1.7% y-o-y even though this segment of the market remained quiet, reined in by the 60% Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) rate for foreigners. The prime market in the CCR traditionally attracts wealthy foreign families parking their funds in a safe and stable geography. In the current climate, buyers in the CCR broadly comprise high-net-worth Singaporeans, permanent residents and new citizens who have been selectively acquiring some of these luxury properties.  

In the RCR, prices increased 1.0% q-o-q and 6.5% y-o-y, the highest among the three regions in Q1 2025. This was mainly due to the launch of The Orie in Toa Payoh, an area that has not had a new launch in recent years, achieving a reported average price of S$2,704 psf for the 668 units (or about 86%) sold in the first weekend.

The stabilisation of prices was more evident in the OCR, which grew by a slight 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2025, even though buyer demand remained strong with take-up rates (based on reported sales) of 93%, 87%, 65% and 61% for Lentor Central Residences (total of 477 units), Parktown Residence (total of 1,193 units),  Elta (total of 501 unit) and Bagnall Haus (total of 113 units) respectively on the launch weekends of these projects.

In the landed market, landed home prices increased by a marginal 0.6% q-o-q in Q1 2025, after a decline of 3.4% q-o-q in Q3 2024 and 0.1% q-o-q in Q4 2024. Demand for landed houses continues to remain stable as housing aspirations for these homes at the top of the Singapore housing pyramid remained firm against generally limited inventory for sale.

An overall annual increase of 0.6% in Q1 2025 shows nascent signs of price stabilisation. At the same time in the public housing market, the HDB Resale Index increased 1.5% q-o-q in the same period (based on HDB flash estimates). Despite the unfolding global political and economic uncertainty, healthy household net worth, low unemployment and the passing down of wealth from earlier generations, will provide support for the primary market in 2025. As such, prices are likely to grow at a moderate between 3% and 5% in 2025, similar to 2024, underpinned by moderate-to-healthy take-up rates of new launches in the year ahead.