URA Flash Estimates - Q3 2025

URA Private Residential Flash Estimates

Based on URA flash estimates released today, private home transaction volume (up till mid-September) totalled 6,594 in Q3 2025, a 28.6% increase from 5,128 transactions recorded in the previous quarter, notwithstanding the Chinese Seventh Month where a third of the quarter (mostly during the month of September) was relatively quiet. In spite of the prevailing uncertainty in the economy as well as growing concerns in the labour market, activity in the months of July and August were supported by new launches. Based on flash estimates, the URA All Residential Price Index increased by a moderate 1.2% q-o-q in Q3 2025 with an overall increase of 3.1% in the first nine months of 2025.

Among the three market segments, the non-landed home prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) recorded the highest quarterly growth of 2.4% in Q3 2025. The price expansion was backed by the launches of UPPERHOUSE at Orchard Boulevard, The Robertson Opus and River Green. Local homebuyers supported activity in the prime home market segment, largely for their own occupation and for lease to foreign professionals working in Singapore, as the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) for foreign buyers continues to hamstring demand from non-Singapore residents. New citizens and permanent residents that favour high-rise living have also been acquiring homes in a stable Singapore, against the backdrop of a destabilising global environment. In 2024, there were 22,766 new citizens and 35,264 new permanent residents based on the latest population data available from the Department of Statistics. With an ABSD rate of 60% for foreign buyers, there is incentive for foreigners to put down roots in a stable Singapore in light of the global political and trade tensions.

In the Rest of Central Region (RCR) prices increased the least among the three market segments, by more marginal 0.4% q-o-q in Q3 2025. Nevertheless, price growth resumed after a contraction of 1.1% q-o-q in Q2 2025. Launches in the Outside Central Region (OCR) also contributed to prices rising 1.0% q-o-q in Q3 2025, similar to the 1.1% q-o-q increase in Q2 2025. Despite the continued demand from local homebuyers, price increases during the quarter and at new launches generally kept to around 1% to 2%. Land prices at government land sales tenders in the past 12 to 15 months generally did not escalate as much as in the years between 2021 to early 2023, and developers are conscious of the price concerns of homebuyers.  

In the landed market, landed home prices increased 1.4% q-o-q in Q3 2025, after rising 2.2% q-o-q in Q2 2025. Although landed homes continue to be sought after due to its scarcity and status at the top of the Singapore housing ladder, it was observed that more landed homebuyers were willing to explore and consider older landed homes or less central locations, or both. Nevertheless, most stayed away from severely run-down properties that required a full redevelopment.

Overall, Singapore’s residential property market remains on a cautious growth path, undergirded by resilient domestic demand and steady developer launches. However, in the near-term, the key factors to watch are the unfolding global macroeconomic headwinds, interest rates, and the unemployment levels. With private home price movement in 2025 at 3.1% between January to September, the overall growth for the year is likely to fall at the higher end of the 3% to 5% projected range. Amid the resilience in the private home market, cautious overtones are creeping into the consciousness of potential homebuyers, especially for employees in industries that are facing business stress as the world changes rapidly.