_Knight Frank Commentary (URA Flash Estimates - Q2 2025)
URA Private Residential Flash Estimates
Based on URA flash estimates released today, private home transaction volume (up till mid-June) totalled 4,340 in Q2 2025, a significant decline from the 7,261 transactions recorded in the previous quarter. The moderation in sales activities was largely attributed to the slower pace of new project launches when compared to Q1 2025 as developers generally held back on introducing new product in May and June. The global mood and outlook turned cautious with the Trump Administration’s announcement of widespread tariffs in April, and this was further exacerbated with the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in June, heightening tensions further in an already uncertain world. All this has culminated has led to tentativeness as developers and buyers alike, watch-and-wait for more clarity.
The slowdown in the overall transactions caused growth in private home prices to flatten further in Q2 2025. Based on flash estimates, the URA All Residential Price Index increased by a marginal 0.5% q-o-q and 3.0% y-o-y in Q2 2025, with the quarterly increase in Q2 was less than the 0.8% q-o-q increase in Q1 2025. In the first six months of 2025, private home prices grew 1.3%, slowing from the 2.3% recorded in the same period a year ago, reflecting a broader market-wide stabilisation of private home prices.
Among the three market segments, the non-landed home prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) recorded the highest quarterly growth of 2.3% in Q2 2025. The price expansion was backed by the launch of 21 Anderson with a current median unit price of S$4,811 psf (based on available caveats), the sole new project introduced in the CCR, together with sales from the existing launched projects. Unlike the previous year, when sellers held fast to their asking prices, it was observed that more homeowners of prime properties are starting to become more negotiable, rationalising their expectations closer to market levels. Especially so for those who are ready to monetise their asset(s) due to higher holding costs and property tax in a time of global political and economic uncertainty.
The Rest of Central Region (RCR) was the most active region Q2 2025 with the buzz generated by the launch of One Marina Gardens and Bloomsbury Residences in April. However, the heightened activity did not lift overall prices in the region, with prices decreasing moderately by 1.1% q-o-q in Q2 2025, a reversal from the 1.7% q-o-q increase in Q1 2025.
The Outside Central Region (OCR) was the quietest with no new launches in Q2. Nevertheless, prices rose 0.9% q-o-q in Q2 2025, up from the 0.3% q-o-q in Q1 2025. The price growth was largely supported by transactions in existing launch projects and the resale market.
In the landed market, landed home prices increased by a marginal 0.7% q-o-q in Q2 2025, after rising 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2025. Activity in the landed and GCB market is expected to remain selective in the remaining months of the year. Nevertheless, as buyers expectations recalibrate to more realistic levels, from more expensive locations to neighbourhoods where prices are within budgets, there could be more activity in the second half of 2025.
Private residential sales slowed after April 2025, as escalating global trade tensions and geopolitical conflict turned market sentiment cautious. While the seasonal off-peak period during the June school holidays also contributed to the lacklustre activity, homebuyers are on the sidelines, ready to act when the right opportunities and new launches emerge. Taking cognisance of the above factors, and a volatile world economy that might derail Singapore’s domestic growth, private home price movement in 2025 is more likely to fall at the lower end of the 3% to 5% projected range with price stabilisation expected to characterise the entire year.