_Knight Frank Commentary (Monthly Developer Sales - March 2025)

The Executive Condominium (EC) Aurelle of Tampines was the top seller in March 2025, with 705 units sold. It was also recently report that the entire project has since sold out, signaling strong homebuyer sentiment by new family formations as well as upgraders.

Overall demand for private homes that started in the final quarter of 2024 was sustained in Q1 2025. There were 729 developer sales in March 2025, less than half of the 1,597 sales in the previous month of January, a fall of 54.4% excluding all ECs. Based on the monthly developer sales data, it is estimated that a total of 3,409 new sales (excluding ECs) were in the first quarter of 2025. Sales at the new project launch, Lentor Central Residences was also brisk with 460 units.

The sustained uplift in buyer sentiment was largely attributed to the more benign interest rates that motivated homebuyers to shift from much of the watch-and-wait stance seen in 2024 into a purchase. Most homebuyers were focused on new launches, incentivised by the appeal of reduced upfront costs during the staged phases of construction, as well as the appeal of owning a brand-new private home with a modern design and a comprehensive range of amenities.

However, in a new era of Trump administration tariffs, the jury is still out as to whether homebuyer demand will remain as resilient in the immediate term. The widespread US tariffs are presently inciting a global trade war, especially with the almost daily escalation between the US and China. The effects of which will ripple through globally interconnected economies such as Singapore. In the US-China tariff war of 2018–2020, under the first Trump administration, the US imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions in Chinese goods. When China retaliated, global trade was rattled, and Singapore’s GDP growth slowed from 3.7% in 2018 to 1.1% in 2019. As the US tariffs will inevitably slow global trade flows, and Singapore is heavily reliant on exports and global trade, this could hurt Singapore's manufacturing, electronics, and logistics sectors as it did circa 2018 to 2020 prior to the pandemic.

The immediate impact on Singapore’s real estate market will likely be typical of periods in previous economic crises. The knee-jerk reaction will be delays and a fall in transaction volume as buyers are startled into a state of pause. Ongoing transactions could be put on hold, while interested homebuyers move to the sidelines to wait for more of the situation to unfold. The current spate of tariff announcements and likely announcements in the days ahead have created and continue to create heightened uncertainty where more will adopt a cautious posture. In the private housing market, should unemployment remain low and retrenchments contained, domestic demand can be expected to be supported once some clarity takes shape on the global scene. Household balance sheets continue to remain strong with debt at manageable levels, and this was what happened during the pandemic when demand strengthened in the later half of 2020 despite the year being the biggest recession on record for Singapore. If the worst should happen and Singapore slides into a recession that is accompanied by pay cuts, salary freezes and job losses, potential homebuyers will retreat to defensive positions, concentrating on bread and butter concerns.