_Implications of the Termination of High- Speed Rail (HSR) project, between Singapore and Malaysia
Q1. What are your general comments on the termination of the HSR, and what effect this could have on the tourism sector for both Singapore and Malaysia? Will one country be more affected by another?
The HSR from Singapore to Kuala Lumpur was slated to open new markets in a metropolitan region of more than 10 million people. Without the HSR, the flow of travellers will have to depend on existing transport modes, which have been at peak capacities due to growing trade and mobility between two countries. The HSR could have been a refreshing catalyst to expand tourism and business opportunities to a new level for both countries. The potentially high flow of labour, business and leisure travellers via the HSR can promote wealth creation and multiplier effects on the economies of both Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.
The absence of the HSR would mean strategies to grow the tourism sector would have to be re-calibrated for the longer term post-COVID, such as expanding new tourist target markets, exploring various modes of connectivity and enhancing alternative modes of partnerships with Malaysia and other countries
Q2. How will the termination of HSR affect commercial development plans in the area, especially on the development potential of the areas that were touted to benefit from the project?
Development potential is expected to be reassessed for areas that are heavily dependent on the HSR to transform significantly. It is envisaged that urban planners would have to review their master plans, rework the details where necessary and to plan for new supporting economic activities in replacement of the HSR.
The master plan for Jurong Lake District (JLD) is likely to be reviewed with some underlying planning parameters to be adjusted, to take into consideration changes in population and visitorship estimates without the HSR. Notwithstanding the termination of HSR, prospects of future commercial developments remains positive in the JLD, with existing and new growth contributors that are being planned. One of the contributors is Bulim Industrial Estate, located within Jurong Innovation District and 10 minutes’ drive to Jurong East Regional Centre, which is continuously developing with new industrial properties and innovation centres well underway. Additionally, the upcoming Tengah residential district and new Jurong Region MRT Line will boost population base, improve transport network and ancillary amenities, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of working and living in Jurong / Bukit Batok areas and benefiting the JLD with Jurong East Regional Centre as the central hub of the west region.
Q3. How will the decentralisation of the CBD be affected? Jurong was meant to be the HSR stop in Singapore and there were plans to rejuvenate the Jurong Lake district. What will happen to these plans?
Having a HSR station at Jurong East could have been a strong opportunity to bring in new sources of business and labour and spur decentralisation with a transit-oriented regional centre. Land parcels set aside and acquired for the HSR would have to be reviewed with alternative strategies from the original plans. This review could be a good opportunity for the planners to come up with new ideas to create resilient, sustainable and progressive business and lifestyle precincts in the JLD, especially in light of the COVID-19 pandemic that has substantially altered the way we work, live and play. The alternative Plan B can usher new areas of innovation and paradigm shift in the JLD, such as the possibilities of organic growth of business clusters and weaving them into residential, educational and lifestyle amenities, as well as exploring sophisticated forms of transport connectivity from the JLD to other parts of Singapore.
Q4. How will this affect land prices, and future land bids for both residential and commercial developments in the area?
Since 2013, there has been a lack of new residential and commercial land parcels rolled out for sale and development in the area. Future land parcels to be released in and around the JLD are envisaged to receive positive response from property developers and investors notwithstanding the termination of the HSR, given the intrinsic population base of residents, workers and students in the western part of Singapore and limited new property stock for the past five years.
However, the growth story of the JLD will have to be recalibrated to present new possibilities and clarity on the development prospects of the area. This narrative would be important in order to preserve or enhance development potential and resultant land price prospects. Current property prices could see a short-term pause in growth followed by a gradual recovery from second half of 2021, as homebuyers and investors fulfil short-term genuine needs with some possibly banking on future prospects that are to be enhanced by any upcoming adjustment to the JLD growth story.
Q5. What can we expect next from developers in the area?
Developers are likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach for now to assess the alternative plans for the JLD in view of the HSR termination, while evaluating other precincts in Singapore to identify property development opportunities. In view of the fluid pandemic situation and uncertain economic outlook, developers would undertake a cautious approach and would require more analysis on supply and demand-side parameters in developing larger-scale projects. At the same time, some developers could adopt a strategic perspective and closely monitor the developments of the JLD in terms of upcoming plans, land parcel releases and notable properties available for sale.