_UHNWI growth forecasts: where is affluence emerging?

At a glance:

• Global population of UHNWIs will grow by 27% over the next five years
• Asia tops our five-year UHNWI growth forecast with 39%, led by Indonesia on 67% and India on 63%
• Africa is expected to see the second biggest regional five-year UHNWI growth rate

Our model predicts that the global population of UHNWIs will grow by 27% over the next five years, while the number of HNWIs – or millionaires – is forecast to rise by 41%.

This reverses the trend seen in 2020 when HNWI numbers actually contracted against modest growth in the worldwide population of those with US$30 million or more in net assets (UHNWIs). This reinforces the resilience of wealth, matching our forecasts from the 2020 edition of The Wealth Report.

Respondents to our Attitudes Survey also take an optimistic view, with 93% expecting their clients’ wealth to stay the same or increase in 2021. Just over one-fifth of these expect a significant – above 10% – increase.

Those in North America, Australasia and Asia are the most optimistic, with 86%, 82% and 81% respectively predicting either an increase or a significant increase.

Asia tops our five-year UHNWI growth forecast with 39%, led by Indonesia on 67% and India on 63%. This would see Asia’s proportion of global UHNWIs rise from 22% to 24%.

Europe will retain its crown as the second largest wealth hub with expected growth of 23%, bringing the total number of UHNWIs to 185,860. The biggest rises are forecast in Poland with 61%, and Sweden with 59%.

Africa is expected to see the second biggest regional five-year UHNWI growth rate – 33% – led by Zambia and South Africa. But the outlook for households earning more than US$100,000 a year is even more positive according to Oxford Economics, which is forecasting 139% growth over the same period.

We highlight the expansion of this cohort to underline the potential of growing mass affluent populations across Africa and Asia. Accelerated growth in lower wealth tiers will serve to reverse some of the widening inequalities of 2020, spurred on by entrepreneurial spirit and technological opportunities.

Although Covid-19 was still far from under control in many parts of the world as The Wealth Report went to press, this year’s forecasts represent optimism for the emergence of a new economic cycle and set new expectations for the post-pandemic world.

About the Wealth Report by Knight Frank

The Wealth Report 2021 is backed by 125 years of real estate experience. We explore where the wealthy live, invest and spend time, as well as forecast the future residential hotspots around the world. Our global data and research experts deliver innovative advice that creates tangible value for our clients, enhancing lives and environments.

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